Benjamin Quinn: Bitcoin Cycle Prolongation – End of a Great Story?

Benjamin Coen, one of the most well-known and respected crypto market analysts, admitted that his flagship market model is “dead”. He did so in the context of the bitcoin price drop while disproving the hypothesis he had been debating since 2019.

Benjamin Quinn is one of the most popular crypto analyst, commentator, and YouTuber. user Twitter profile She has 636,000 followers and his YouTube channel has 734,000 subscribers.

Coin’s way of managing social media is that it doesn’t generate any revenue from YouTube ads or the promotion of third-party services (exchanges, services, brands or crypto tokens). His extroverted, simple and critical style has given him a huge fan base. For years, he’d been recording his videos in a small room with two chairs, a cardboard table, and a laptop camera.

Dead Extension Cycles vs. Stock to Flow

One of the main hypotheses on which he has built his notoriety is the claim about Bitcoin’s elongation cycles. The hypothesis assumes that:

  1. There are cycles in the bitcoin market that consist of accumulation, a dynamic uptrend, and a sharp decline.
  2. Successive cycles last longer.
  3. Successive cycles result in lower returns (ROI).
  4. A long-term model for the BTC market is logarithmic regression bands, where the upper bound determines the upper bound and the lower bound determines the bottom.

Benjamin Quinn has been a staunch supporter of this hypothesis since 2019. He believed in the validity of the model because he claimed that it fit the historical data better. In an interesting discussion in August 2021, Quinn spoke to another influential analyst, plan Binventor of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model.

At the end of 2021, there was a significant difference between the real bitcoin price and the bitcoin price projected by the S2F model. At the time, PlanB explained that at least the floor model was incorrect. This model assumes that the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in December 2021.

After the collapse (or at least partial collapse) of the S2F model, many investors and crypto enthusiasts have turned to the Coin model for renewal cycles. It seems that the target range of $100,000 to $200,000 is still achievable for Bitcoin, and it will take much longer. This narrative was supported by arguments for an increased market cap for the crypto sector, a longer time frame for institutional investors, and long-term HODL sentiment.

broken spell

Unfortunately, on May 8, the spell was broken. The inventor and biggest proponent of the lengthening cycle model, Benjamin Quinn, tweeted a short but powerful post. In two short sentences, he admitted that the model has worked for years but is now “dead”. At the same time, he added bitterly that he “hopes this is a reference to a macro bottom, but doesn’t really think it is.”

Benjamin Quinn: Is it really over?

A big discussion ensued under the tweet. Benjamin Quinn himself wrote one Suspensionin which he previously warned that even a new all-time high (ATH) before the next Bitcoin Halving wouldn’t change his conclusion:

“Even if we hit a new ATH before the next halving, it doesn’t change the current bear market brutality.”

The reason for this claim is the continued decline in the price of Bitcoin. The analyst believes that it can no longer be considered a correction deeper within the overall bull market. Although Cowen still argued in November 2021 that $69,000 was not the top of the Bitcoin cycle, he does not hesitate to refute his own beliefs. he is Also added:

“Even if #Bitcoin holds its lows in the summer of 2021 (which is a big deal, frankly), everything after that will look like a new cycle.”

Source: Twitter

In the comments below his post, many proponents of the prolongation cycle hypothesis could not believe Benjamin Quinn was abandoning his main novel. Some have asked for details or tried to prove that this is not the end and that the model is still valid. However, the vast majority expressed support and admiration for Quinn’s honesty and self-criticism. was one of them Tweet embed he is books:

“The amazing thing about you is that you are never afraid to admit you are wrong, instead of telling the same story over and over. I like that!”

In contrast, the user posted Tweet embed Interesting summary. He frankly stated that cycles never existed and that Quinn’s and Plan B’s models were just novels that couldn’t predict the future. He believes that “#crypto will survive, as always”.

Declining returns and logarithmic regression remain

It turns out, however, that not all parts of the Quinn model should be ignored by falsifying the cycle lengthening hypothesis. in a later one tweet The analyst stated that he doubts anyone will debate the thesis of lower bitcoin returns in future cycles. he added:

‘Narrowed four consecutive cycles of yield.’

Another component of the Coin pattern that is still valid and provides a wide range for BTC price action are the logarithmic regression bands. in updated and chirp Version of the chart, we see that the price of Bitcoin is approaching the upper border of the green bar. Historically, entering this range is confirmation of a bear market.

sSource: Twitter

However, due to the upward sloping nature of the logarithmic regression curve, staying in the green does not necessarily imply a further decline in the price of Bitcoin. In both 2012 and 2015, the timing of entering the green seemed to be the beginning of a long-term consolidation process.

Bitcoin: near the bottom of the macro?

During this consolidation, the price of bitcoin did not collapse so much as it collapsed shortly after the peak. On the other hand, the bottom of the green band was reached in the following months less due to the capitulation of Bitcoin and more due to the rise of the logarithmic range.

In fact, if a similar situation occurs in the coming months, Bitcoin will be on the verge of forming a macro bottom. The fact remains that we are witnessing the end of the great narrative of the Bitcoin market, which for years was the face of Benjamin Coen.

Perhaps the falsification of its flagship model is not so dramatic for further development. For years, this has been a way to simplify and navigate the highly volatile and somewhat brutal cryptocurrency market. Perhaps the rejection of the model will also allow the participants of this young financial world to enter a new and more mature stage. Like Quinn himself often says And PlanB in his Twitter profile description:

“All models are wrong. Some are logical.”

Not giving an opinion

All information on our website has been researched to the best of our knowledge and belief. Press contributions are for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes based on the information on our website is entirely at his or her own risk.

Leave a Comment