What could the Corona pandemic look like in 2027? Scientists from the International Science Council have addressed this question and developed three scenarios.
Perhaps it is impossible to describe the corona pandemic in one or more terms. The International Science Council (ISC) tried it anyway and decided on three words: “unprecedented and unchanged.” This is the title of the current report from the International Study Center, which dares to take a look at the pandemic. It’s supposed to enable bugs to combat that Corona Virus Detect and draw conclusions from them.
The conclusion drawn from the merger of more than 200 businesses: Looking back shows that the course of the future urgently needs to be determined. The course for better handling of epidemics in general and the course for future handling of Covid-19 in particular.
The future of the Corona pandemic: three scenarios until 2027
According to the International Study Centre, complex thinking will be especially important in the future. ISC President Peter Gluckman says the pandemic as a health crisis has “tragically claimed the lives of millions”. But the effects “far exceeded health”. Instead, the Corona crisis has shown that political decisions also affect many other areas. One example is school closures, which jeopardize educational opportunities. Another is to prevent economic development by closing the borders.
The consortium developed three different scenarios to show hot spots for political action. All of this is meant to show where the world could be in 2027 around the coronavirus. Ethicist Christian Woben from the University of Bonn sees the project’s methodological view as very valuable: “I’ve missed such reflection on possible scenarios in German politics during the entire pandemic. It is very important to think about which ones to measure, what outcomes are resulting and how they can be mitigated.”
The continuity scenario is the most likely corona scenario
Scientists at the International Study Center have identified a total of 53 factors that could go on to influence the epidemic. Many of these revolve around the psychology of people. Accordingly, the pandemic has resulted in 76.2 million anxiety disorders and 53.2 million major depression worldwide.
The most likely scenario out of the three ISC scenarios is the continuity scenario. This brings with it the fact that non-vaccinated people are still found primarily in poor countries. Covid-19 could have become more widespread, but booster doses are still needed as the pandemic spreads. From a political point of view, trust in the state has declined in the scenario, social cohesion has declined and populism is on the rise.
Read also about this
Corona pandemic is an optimistic and pessimistic scenario
The second scenario is called Lost Recovery and is much more pessimistic. Accordingly, the social effects of the epidemic have not been mitigated in five years. The result: increased inequality created by protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions. International cooperation is weak, and a large part of the world’s population remains vulnerable. The result is a severe Corona epidemic, and strong populism makes international cooperation difficult.
Those interested in this scenario can look forward to a more optimistic scenario called “Additional Collaboration,” the third scenario. Accordingly, cooperation has improved and Covid-19 has lost its dread. The vaccination rate of the world’s population is more than 70 percent, and antiviral drugs are widely available and cheap. Rich countries have invested in digitization, health systems, and social security. So new aura waves can be dealt with.
We want to know what you think: So Augsburger Allgemeine is working with the opinion research institute Civey. Read here what representative surveys are all about and why you should sign up.